What’s the Trump trade with the border wall? Texas wins, the other 49 states lose.
The stock market will crash one day, but at the moment it’s just making the doom merchants look foolish.
“It seems like every day, there’s a negative headline saying what’s wrong with the market, but by the time the closing bell rings, stocks finish in the green,” say Bespoke Investment Group’s analysts, as they reflect on the S&P 500’s six-day winning streak.
Investors keep chattering about the champs and chumps in the new world order, dubbing many of them “Trump trades.” Add Texas to your list of winners, according to our call of the day, which comes from South Texas Money Management’s Jim Kee.
Clients have been asking him about the economic impact on the Lone Star State from the construction of President Trump’s proposed border wall, he says in his latest “Kee Points” note.
The impact of building the border wall will be similar to that of any large public works project, says the San Antonio-based company’s chief economist. That means it benefits the region where the construction takes place, but costs others.
“So I look at it as a zero-sum affair, in which Texas gains what the other 49 states lose in payments,” he writes. “Economic benefits would likely be highest for border towns and materials/engineering firms in Texas in general, and south Texas in particular.”
He doesn’t name any particular firms (and the Texas ETF is no longer with us), but among the former republic’s materials companies are U.S. Concrete USCR, -1.22% , bricks and pipes maker Forterra FRTA, -1.20% and Eagle Materials EXP, +0.49% .
Kee says he’s over-simplifying, as there are other negatives such as lower cross-border trade, and other positives like “more property rights security.”
If you can’t stand this assessment, you can take comfort in Texas possibly seeing only a fleeting payoff.
“Like most public spending projects, I think the impact will be positive but transient,” Kee says.